Core Summary

  • The latest Employment Trends Index from The Conference Board shows that the U.S. labor market remains in a state of "low hiring, low turnover."
  • The index declined for the second consecutive month, signaling "slower wage growth ahead," said Jannik Schulz, economic research associate at The Conference Board, in a statement, noting that "not many workers are quitting."
  • Meanwhile, 22.5% of consumers believe "jobs are hard to find," the highest level since January 2021.

Deeper Insights

These findings align with data released earlier this month by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 57,000 in June, a figure well below private sector expectations. Additionally, employment data for April and May were revised down by a cumulative 74,000, which the chief economist at Glassdoor noted in a recent statement could signal a significant slowdown ahead.

"Consumers' pessimism about the hiring outlook contributed significantly to the index's weakness in June," Schulz said, adding that this is consistent with the overall state of the current labor market.

The Conference Board report shows that initial jobless claims rose for the second consecutive month in June, reaching 222,000, the highest monthly average this year. Schulz noted that although "claims remain near historic lows," the index "interprets this increase as a negative signal for the future labor market."

However, according to the latest research from talent acquisition platform ICIMS, workers who can create and manage artificial intelligence systems remain in short supply. In particular, the job market for computer programmers, software developers, and database administrators has grown significantly year-over-year, despite an overall increase in layoffs across the tech industry.